An Obsessive Compulsive Electability Analysis (Ode To Poblano)

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday May 19, 2008 · 3:35 PM PDT

2008/05/19 · 15:35

Primary season is all but over, but we still hear much about electability. There are ubiquitous arguments on who won swing or key states (defined by what suits your point). We see pretty maps that are at the whim of the latest poll. Better are poll-averaging algorithms, like Pollster.com, which reduce outlier impact but aren't too predictive so far out.

Then, like manna from heaven, there's Poblano's analysis at 538. Not to usurp his amazing work, but to satiate my own obsessive compulsive curiosity, I compiled 538's data on Obama/Clinton match-ups vs. McCain, added Pollster.com data for comparison, and sought to identify "swing" states based on blue/purple/red and Cook Report categories.

The goal: To play with 538's data in looking at Obama & Clinton's relative "electability" and to see how the who-won-which-state stuff bears out in current trends. Results, analysis below the fold.

phaedrus

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday March 16, 2008 · 9:57 AM PDT

2008/03/16 · 09:57

Yesterday I attended a relatively intimate event in Los Angeles for Charlie Brown, who barely missed ousting John Doolittle in CA-04 in 2006, and who is now re-running for the seat left open by Doolittle's retirement.

I was invited (really, begged to go) by a friend who worked on Brown's 2006 campaign. But I left with an incredible sense of excitement and clearly a bit of inspiration -- enough that I am now attempting to pen my first diary in years, to express how this event reminded me of what matters in what we are trying to achieve.

phaedrus

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday August 18, 2004 · 6:11 PM PDT

2004/08/18 · 18:11

This, from Salon.com, is hilarious:

G.I. Joe Is a Fake: Veterans group says military hero lied about his record; claims evil villains escaped his clutches during war against Cobra. Read More

Tucker's shallow Jacuzzi defense

phaedrus

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday July 27, 2004 · 5:11 PM PDT

2004/07/27 · 17:11

Salon's War Room '04 has this squib on Tucker Carlson's Jacuzzi defense. Tim Grieve asked Tucker in halls of the Fleet Center about the flak he's been taking (thanks in large part to Hunter going postal) for calling Edwards a "jacuzzi case" lawyer.... Read More

SCLM Strikes Again! NYT does Air America

phaedrus

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday May 31, 2004 · 8:04 AM PDT

2004/05/31 · 08:04

In the Paper of Record, today: "Office Politics Give Liberal Radio a Rocky Start", an article focusing on the financial and administrative troubles in Air America's first months. Fair enough, but what's so weird is the way the article treats Air America's successes. Read More

Oh Crap: New Hamas Leader Assassinated

phaedrus

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday April 17, 2004 · 1:05 PM PDT

2004/04/17 · 13:05

Breaking news.

A friend of the family who's a Republican, asked my mother last week, "How can you hate Bush so much when he's so pro-Israel?" (We're Jewish. Family friend ain't.)

My response is the same I have to neocons in the US. Just because you say you're "Pro Israel," "Pro Democracy" and "Anti-Terror" doesn't mean you're going to do things that actually help.

Like this. Or this.

News Report: Bush Vows to 'Stay the Course' in Use of Adjectives, Nouns

phaedrus

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday April 14, 2004 · 9:48 AM PDT

2004/04/14 · 09:48

Against a backdrop of turmoil in Iraq, the 9/11 Commission hearings, and the release of the August 6 PDB, President Bush last night gave a rare press conference where he promised to "stay the course" in the use forceful adjectives, evocative nouns, and crucial metaphors.

Bush made it clear that no matter what occurs in Iraq, his message will be the same: Saddam was a "threat" and a "danger" and the U.S. needed to deal with him to create a "free and secure" Iraq. Read More

RSS

An Obsessive Compulsive Electability Analysis (Ode To Poblano)

Charlie Brown (CA-04): Reminds me of what matters

Veterans Groups for Truth Says GI Joe Not Real American Hero

Tucker's shallow Jacuzzi defense

SCLM Strikes Again! NYT does Air America

Oh Crap: New Hamas Leader Assassinated

News Report: Bush Vows to 'Stay the Course' in Use of Adjectives, Nouns